New Zealand dairy market: will China be the answer? [News Oceania n°10/2016]

Period: May 2 – 13, 2016

AUSTRALIA

• Milk production: during March was -4.6% below March 2015.

NEW ZEALAND

• Milk production: expectations remain that milk production will decrease more than usual as the season nears its end, due to poor pasture conditions and lingering dryness.

MILK PRODUCTION

• Australia *: -1.05% (Jul 15 – Mar 16 vs. Jul 14 – Mar 15)
• New Zealand *: -1.72% (Jun 15 – Mar 16 vs. Jun 14 – Mar 15)

BUTTER (82%): prices decreased at the top of the range. Australian butter production during January was down -21% from December 2015, according to Dairy Australia. During the first part of this season, period July 2015 – January 2016, butter production was down -4.5% if compared with Jul 2014 – Jan 2015 period.

CHEDDAR CHEESE: prices decreased at the top of the range. Production basically unchanged in Australia.

SMP: prices declined and the price range narrowed. Australian production during January was down -13% from the prior month, according to Dairy Australia. During the period Jul 2015 – Jan 2016 production increased by +12% if compared with the same period of the previous season.

WMP: prices decreased. Australian production during January increased by +30% from the prior month, according to Dairy Australia. During the period Jul 2015 – Jan 2016 production decreased by -16% if compared with the same period of the previous season.

In Oceania dairy commodity prices declined further.

Diminished expectations that greater demand from China would boost this year’s New Zealand dairy economy are now evident. Financial stress on farmers is increasingly a matter of concern.

CLAL.it – New Zealand dairy export to China, by product

Note: · Assessments about market trend are expressed in US$; · * Dairy season: July, 1st – June, 30th (Australia), June, 1st – May, 31st (New Zealand).

Source: USDA summarized by the CLAL Team

More informations about milk production in New Zealand and Australia are available on CLAL.it